The markets stayed undecided this week. Some stock continued to grow other chosen to stop or even showing the sight or turn. S&P 500 (SPX) closed on Friday at 3965 (-26 to last week closing), while Nasdaq declined to 11677 (-140).
U.S. government bond yields continued to fall this week again. US10Y Yield is at 3,83% now.
Good inflation expectations and hope that Fed will slow down on increase speed of Fer rate are still the main supporting factors in the markets.
We seem to see more demand in Germany’s governments Bond’s DE10Y Yield is at 2.02% it’s it’s still very high, but the direction is right at the moment.
- The Fed has to keep raising to lower the inflation down to targeted 2%
- The inflation in EU stays high with 2 digits, nothing positive here at the moment.
FTX problems where for sure a negative factor this week, however seem not to play any role.
Then marked have loss their upward power in this week. I tend to believe that we will see a weak week and maybe speed up in the drawdown. Volatility is staying moderate low, VIX at 23, but it not falling anymore.
Hight Fed rate increased fear of rising mortgage rates that can cause new wave in the recession
The last weeks, the average fixed mortgage rate topped 7%, its highest point in 14 years, making home loans twice as expensive as they were a year ago. Mortgage rates don’t always move perfectly in tandem with the Fed increase, instead tracking the expected yield on the 10-year Treasury note. As the yield on the 10-year Treasury note staying below 4% and yet also Mortgage seem to stay below 7%.
However 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is closely watched by analyst and to keep market bullish is should not raise. this week, we will have new official figures:
- Wed 2022-11-23: Update 30-year fixed-rate mortgages - expected 6,9%
- Wed 2022-11-23: US New Home Sales data, United States MBA Mortgage Applications figures.
Stock levels to watch out for next weeks
- ZIM 22,50
- GT 10
- WBD 10
- DIS 87
- AAP 145
- LUMN 5.5
Watch AMZN and GOOG, would not define any level of support, but should they go significantly down - prepare your cash.
Finance Sector is way to high at the moment.
Stay careful! Happy investments!