Stocks to watch

Please keep in mind This is not investment advice!

Stocks to watch:

Symbol Interesting Price levels Comment
TLT $95 Long term you can’t do anything wrong with this asset. Very important to watch next week. VGLT as variant
TMF $6 Same advise like TLT but has some leverage
LQD $105 New in my list. High grade corporate bonds could have “cheap momentum” next week.
——– Energy ———-
UNG $6.5 Natural gaz prices are very low at the moment, But crude oil prices have been rising in recent weeks
CVX $150
——– Basic Materials ———-
NEM $40 Becomes interesting when going below
——– Industrials ———-
MMM $100
ZIM $12.5
——- Consumer Cyclicals ——
DIS $85
TGT $130
VSCO $17.5 Some uncertainties present for sure, however looks very promising long term
AAP $68 Surged after dividend cut, but now might find it’s ground around this level. Watch it
——- Consumer Non Cyclicals ——
KHC $35
MO $43.5
KO $59.5
WBA $28.5
——- Healthcare ——
PFE $34.5
——- Technology ——
LUMN $1.5 The free fall continues. But if you look out to buy something underpriced for next year?
T $13.5
VZ $32.5
EBAY $42
PYPL $60.5
——- Real Estate ——
VMBS $45 if goes below. watch closely
O $58.5
AGNC $9.5
EXR $125
——- Utilities ——
NEE $68

Market Setup

During a busy week of corporate earnings, market’s attention centered on mega-cap companies Amazon and Apple. Amazon exceeded expectations due to robust retail performance, causing its stock to surge over 9% on Friday’s opening. Conversely, Apple’s mixed report, highlighting services strength but disappointing iPhone sales, led to a roughly 3% decline in its stock.

The inexorable growth of the last few weeks seems to be cooling off at least a bit. All major US Indexes S&P500, Dow Jones 30, NASDAQ 100 have closed below their recent hights. Technical picture suggest more declination in the next week. This view is supported by overall market conditions worldwide. Market grow in the last week seem to be too optimistic overall. This view is backed up by jumping in the The VIX volatility index, that we saw starting from Wednesday.

However the biggest waves are triggered on the Debt market. On Tuesday, Fitch Ratings lowered the credit rating of U.S. government debt from AAA, the highest level, to AA+. This decision was based on governance and medium-term fiscal concerns. This seem to had strong effect on US treasures. Some investors appeared to take advantage of the news to trim riskier positions. TLT (Exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds long-term U.S. Treasury bonds) fall close to $94.5 temporarily.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury notes increased from 3.95% to almost 4.20% by early Friday. After the release of the jobs report, fell to 4.05%.

So markets are showing weakness. Now the intrigue remains as if this is just a short breather or it is also possible that we saw a turnaround last week and the downtrend continue…

Monetary stats

Rate hiked on 07/27

Rates Value (%)
Fed Funds rate (range) 5.25-5.5
EFFR 5.33
Fed Discount Rate 5.5
Prime rate 8.5

Next week Calendar

Next week, we’ll receive the latest inflation updates CPI and PPI will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Consumer prices are anticipated to have increased by 0.2% last month, matching June’s rate. On an annual basis, they are expected to have risen by 3.3%, marking an acceleration from June 2022’s 3% rate, which benefited from a favorable year-over-year base effect due to peak inflation in June 2022. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, is projected to remain unchanged at 4.8%, marking the slowest pace since October 2021.

Monday, August 7

Relevant earning reports:

  • Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
  • BioNTech (BNTX)
  • International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF)
  • Tyson Foods (TSN)
  • Lucid Group (LCID)
  • Paramount Global (PARA)

Economy reports:

  • China Trade Balance (Jul)
  • Germany Industrial Production MoM

Tuesday, August 8

Relevant earning reports:

  • Eli Lilly & Company (LLY)
  • United Parcel Service (UPS)
  • GlobalFoundries Inc. (GFS)
  • Sun Life Financial (SLF)
  • Barrick Gold (GOLD)
  • Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)
  • Rivian Automotive (RIVN)

Economy reports:

  • U.S. Trade Balance (Jun)
  • Wholesale Inventories (Jun)

Wednesday, August 9

  • The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
  • Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC),
  • Roblox Corporation (RBLX)

Thursday, August 10

  • Alibaba Group (BABA)
  • Brookfield Corporation (BN)

Economy reports:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI), Inflation Report (Jul)

Friday, August 11

Spectrum Brands Holding Inc. (SPB) and Soho House & Co. (SHCO) reports earnings Producer Price Index (PPI) Inflation Report (Jul)

Economy reports:

  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Preliminary (Aug)
  • U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Preliminary Reading (Q2 2023)
  • U.S PPI MoM